Christmas Comes Early

December 6, 2022

Amidst all the bad news of 2022 comes some good news at last.

It is just possible that the rate of inflation in Australia has peaked (in October) earlier than predicted by economists (The Australian 1 Dec 2022: Robert Gottliebsen).

(By the way – what do you call 100 economists in a room?… a vacuum!)

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Interest Rates in 2022, an Important Message

March 25, 2022

I am writing again – to let you know how I think the interest rate scenario will unfold in 2022 and how to prepare together. We each have roles.

The pieces are falling into place for the Reserve Bank to start to lift the cash rate.

  • Inflation between 2% and 3% – is already in place.
  • Unemployment under 4% – this is imminent.
  • Wages growth above 3% – is the missing piece.

To repeat from an earlier email, this is how I see the rate scenario playing out this year…

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APRA, The Reserve Bank and Interest Rates

October 29, 2021

The Reserve Bank has cut rates to low levels to encourage borrowing.

This is a good thing.

The strategy has worked.

Housing and construction are the backbone of our economy – because they generate so much employment and activity.

House price has increased – and that in itself is not a bad thing.

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