What is a “Tracker Mortgage”?

April 11, 2024

A report from a government committee has suggested that Australian Banks be forced to issue “Tracker Mortgages” (Aust Financial Review 27 March 2024).

Australian banks have unsurprisingly pushed back.

A “tracker mortgage” supposedly “tracks” the Reserve Bank cash rate so that your home loan rate remains at a fixed margin relative to the Reserve Bank cash rate.

The benefit is that a borrower will not be left (as currently happens) with a rate stranded high and dry well adrift of where it should be.

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2024 The Year Ahead

January 30, 2024

There are things that can be taken as almost certain this year – so let’s plan for them.

On the money supply side:

  1. At some stage this year the Reserve Bank will start to reduce rates.
  2. When rates fall by 0.25% it is almost certain that banks will act with their usual pattern and cut by 0.25% for new clients and only 0.15% for existing clients.

No need for you to worry here – I will be able to deal with that for you in my scheduled 6 monthly reviews – it’s what I do for you.

So, let’s turn to getting ahead in life this year.

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The Melbourne Cup Rate Rise – Why Did it Happen, What Does it Mean for YOU?

November 14, 2023

This time WHY matters.

The 3-year bond rate in the US is 5.30%, the 10-year bond rate 4.65%.

The 3-year bond rate in Aust is 4.35%, the 10-year bond rate is 4.75%.

Banks BORROW to lend to you at the 3-year bond rate (among many other sources) – so money is COSTING the banks 4.35%

They can also borrow (overnight) from the Reserve Bank at the cash rate 4.10% – but the Reserve Bank also needs to borrow that to lend to the banks – so the Reserve Bank is making LOSSES at 4.10%.

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Interest Rates Have Peaked

August 2, 2023

“The balance of risks now favour the prospect that the RBA is now on hold” – Bill Evans (The Australian Wed 2nd Aug 2023)

I predicted quite some time ago that the “peak” of this interest rate cycle would be 6% (to you) and that you should plan around that – and that appears to be correct.

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Well, that was a surprise…

May 3, 2023

Should it surprise us that 100% of economists on Monday became only 70% of economists by Wednesday?

I will carefully analyse what the Reserve Bank board says as well as Bill Evans.

I think it is possible that with this Reserve Bank board undergoing significant change by September that they wanted to fire one last shot – I will write in detail next week.

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An open letter to Banks on behalf of my clients.

May 2, 2023

I am always open to opportunities with new lenders for my new to bank clients.

Under BID (Best Interest Duty) my obligations are clear – and they are obligations on me personally.

Banks have absolutely no obligations under BID.

This means that in the main – our interests do not align.

There is one place they do – new business.

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How best to Plan Ahead…

March 7, 2023

With the Reserve Bank likely lifting rates later today – how best to plan ahead.

I asked two clients recently if they were interested in hearing why rates are being lifted – and their answer could not have been clearer … “no – we read your emails because you tell us how to plan”

The so-called experts (and even Bill Evans from Westpac has changed his view a few times recently) seem divided but also in agreement on between 1 and 3 rates rises – including today’s.

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The “Why” about Rates

March 7, 2023

Covid came along and no government in the world quite knew how to respond… they planned for the worst.

  • We were all locked up.
  • While they developed a vaccine.
  • Which meant businesses and people lives were about to be financially destroyed.
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2023 – Interest Rates – Let the blather begin…

February 9, 2023

Inflation was slightly higher in December than expected. Inflation kicked off with oil price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, so rate rises did feel a “bit unfair” to many.

However, in December one of the single biggest contributors was travel and holidays. After two years of disappointment, we all spent whatever it took to have a holiday (and so we should). But that is 100% discretionary spending, on us. Too much money chasing too few goods. That always has a bad end – with the price of everything going up. Inflation kills wealth and inflation has to be controlled.

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The Reasons Behind and Lessons from the Past.

May 9, 2022

What caused the Reserve Bank to move away from its previously stated plans?

Namely… they were not going to move until:

  • Inflation was comfortably in the 2%-3% range.
  • Wages growth was above 3%.

The reasons that threw the Reserve Bank off course were simple:

  • Russia invaded Ukraine and has caused a global disruption to Oil, Coal, Gas markets (you felt this when Petrol hit $2.20 per litre and became an election issue). Prices go up because this feeds into the price of everything.
  • China decided to prolong its pursuit of Covid zero and has recently shut down Shanghai and then Beijing. Supply chains are in disarray (try getting anything delivered in a reasonable time – eg a car). Prices go up in a scramble for product.
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