Bill Evans took up the Chief Economist role at Westpac in 1991 and has consistently been “getting the big calls right for 30 years”.
When he talks – I listen.
Bill Evans predicts (The Australian Sat 11th Sep 2021) “Interest rates will rise… starting in the first quarter 2023… and going up (in steps) by (only) 1.25%”.
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Over the last week I have had several clients ask me what I both think and suggest in the current circumstances.
I have been quiet since my email of 6th Feb when I highlighted what the Corona Virus outbreak might mean for the year ahead.
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Economically they used to say, “when America catches a cold the world catches the flu”.
At the moment because of the literal corona virus in China, the world is at risk of catching the economic flu.
Aside from the presidential election and the post Brexit trade negotiations (both of which are the long game for 2020 -being Nov and Dec respectively), the length of time that the world takes to adjust to the economic impact of the corona virus will be the story of significance in 2020.
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The scene is now set for the rest of 2019.
I give credit to the Reserve Bank and the Government for pre-empting.
The Reserve Bank cut rates by 0.5% (0.4% of which was passed through) and the Government passed tax cuts through to everyone.
What was the background? The two big ticket items – Brexit and the US China Trade War.
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Anyone can read in the media that The Reserve Bank cut the cash rate yesterday.
I always endeavour to let you know what this means – so that you can plan ahead.
In July 2016 – almost 10 years after the GFC, interest rates had been low for a decade, there was a growing sentiment that they would inevitably rise – which always makes people worry.
I like to take notice of the people who have the RED (rates) button on their desk so back in 2016 I read an article from Janet Yelland (the outgoing chair of the US Federal Reserve) who had just told Congress that rates would stay low for ANOTHER decade – yes until 2025.
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